On the use of galaxies as clocks and the universal expansion

We set out to rederive the 8 Hubble parameter values obtained from estimated relative galaxy ages in Simon et al, PRD 71 (2005). We find that to obtain the level of precision claimed in $H(z)$, unrealistically small galaxy age uncertainties have to be assumed. Also, some parameter values will be correlated. In our analysis we find that the uncertainties in the Hubble parameter values are significantly larger when 8 independent $H(z)$ are obtained using Monte Carlo sampling. Smaller uncertainties can be obtained using Gaussian processes, but at the cost of strongly correlated results. We do not obtain any useful constraints on the Hubble parameter from the galaxy data employed.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figure

The large influence of climate model bias on terrestrial carbon cycle simulations

Global vegetation models and terrestrial carbon cycle models are widely used for projecting the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. Ensembles of such models show a large spread in carbon balance predictions, ranging from a large uptake to a release of carbon by the terrestrial biosphere, constituting a large uncertainty in the associated feedback to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations under global climate change. Errors and biases that may contribute to such uncertainty include ecosystem model structure, parameters and forcing by climate output from general circulation models (GCMs) or the atmospheric components of Earth system models (ESMs), e.g. as prepared for use in IPCC climate change assessments. The relative importance of these contributing factors to the overall uncertainty in carbon cycle projections is not well characterised. Here we investigate the role of climate model-derived biases by forcing a single global ecosystem-carbon cycle model, with original climate outputs from 15 ESMs and GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble. We show that variation among the resulting ensemble of present and future carbon cycle simulations propagates from biases in annual means of temperature, precipitation and incoming shortwave radiation. Future changes in carbon pools, and thus land carbon sink trends, are also affected by climate biases, although to a smaller extent than the absolute size of carbon pools. Our results suggest that climate biases could be responsible for a considerable fraction of the large uncertainties in ESM simulations of land carbon fluxes and pools, amounting to about 40% of the range reported for ESMs. We conclude that climate bias-induced uncertainties must be decreased to make accurate coupled atmosphere-carbon cycle projections

Approaching the potential of model-data comparisons of global land carbon storage

Abstract Carbon storage dynamics in vegetation and soil are determined by the balance of carbon influx and turnover. Estimates of these opposing fluxes differ markedly among different empirical datasets and models leading to uncertainty and divergent trends. To trace the origin of such discrepancies through time and across major biomes and climatic regions, we used a model-data fusion framework. The framework emulates carbon cycling and its component processes in a global dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, and preserves the model-simulated pools and fluxes in space and time. Thus, it allows us to replace simulated carbon influx and turnover with estimates derived from empirical data, bringing together the strength of the model in representing processes, with the richness of observational data informing the estimations. The resulting vegetation and soil carbon storage and global land carbon fluxes were compared to independent empirical datasets. Results show model-data agreement comparable to, or even better than, the agreement between independent empirical datasets. This suggests that only marginal improvement in land carbon cycle simulations can be gained from comparisons of models with current-generation datasets on vegetation and soil carbon. Consequently, we recommend that model skill should be assessed relative to reference data uncertainty in future model evaluation studies

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections

European Position Paper on Rhinosinusitis and Nasal Polyps 2020

The European Position Paper on Rhinosinusitis and Nasal Polyps 2020 is the update of similar evidence based position papers published in 2005 and 2007 and 2012. The core objective of the EPOS2020 guideline is to provide revised, up-to-date and clear evidence-based recommendations and integrated care pathways in ARS and CRS. EPOS2020 provides an update on the literature published and studies undertaken in the eight years since the EPOS2012 position paper was published and addresses areas not extensively covered in EPOS2012 such as paediatric CRS and sinus surgery. EPOS2020 also involves new stakeholders, including pharmacists and patients, and addresses new target users who have become more involved in the management and treatment of rhinosinusitis since the publication of the last EPOS document, including pharmacists, nurses, specialised care givers and indeed patients themselves, who employ increasing self-management of their condition using over the counter treatments. The document provides suggestions for future research in this area and offers updated guidance for definitions and outcome measurements in research in different settings. EPOS2020 contains chapters on definitions and classification where we have defined a large number of terms and indicated preferred terms. A new classification of CRS into primary and secondary CRS and further division into localized and diffuse disease, based on anatomic distribution is proposed. There are extensive chapters on epidemiology and predisposing factors, inflammatory mechanisms, (differential) diagnosis of facial pain, allergic rhinitis, genetics, cystic fibrosis, aspirin exacerbated respiratory disease, immunodeficiencies, allergic fungal rhinosinusitis and the relationship between upper and lower airways. The chapters on paediatric acute and chronic rhinosinusitis are totally rewritten. All available evidence for the management of acute rhinosinusitis and chronic rhinosinusitis with or without nasal polyps in adults and children is systematically reviewed and integrated care pathways based on the evidence are proposed. Despite considerable increases in the amount of quality publications in recent years, a large number of practical clinical questions remain. It was agreed that the best way to address these was to conduct a Delphi exercise. The results have been integrated into the respective sections. Last but not least, advice for patients and pharmacists and a new list of research needs are included.Peer reviewe

Too early to infer a global NPP decline since 2000

The global terrestrial carbon cycle plays a pivotal role in regulating the atmospheric composition of greenhouse gases. It has recently been suggested that the upward trend in net primary production (NPP) seen during the 1980's and 90's has been replaced by a negative trend since 2000 induced by severe droughts mainly on the southern hemisphere. Here we compare results from an individual-based global vegetation model to satellite-based estimates of NPP and top-down reconstructions of net biome production (NBP) based on inverse modelling of observed CO2 concentrations and CO2 growth rates. We find that simulated NBP exhibits considerable covariation on a global scale with interannual fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. Our simulations also suggest that droughts in the southern hemisphere may have been a major driver of NPP variations during the past decade. The results, however, do not support conjecture that global terrestrial NPP has entered a period of drought-induced decline

Landmark-Based Software for Anatomical Measurements: A Precision Study

The aim of this study was to develop a software program, called Landmarker, which would aid studies of complex anatomical morphometry by simplifying the manual identification of landmarks in 3D images. We also tested its precision on routine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. To understand human biological variation, there is a need to identify morphological characteristics from the exterior and the interior of human anatomy. MRI, as opposed to other radiographic methods (mainly based on X-ray techniques), supplies good soft tissue contrast, which allows for more complex assessments than what bony landmarks can provide. Because automation of this assessment is highly demanding, one of the primary goals for the new software was to enable more rapid identification of landmark sets in 3D image data. Re P eat acquisition of head MRIs having a resolution of 0.94 x 0.94 x 1.20 mm(3) were performed on 10 volunteers. Intra- and interoperator, as well as interacquisition variations of manual identification of exterior, craniofacial interior, and brain landmarks were studied. The average distances between landmarks were <1.8 mm, <2.3 mm, and <2.0 mm in the intra- and interoperator, and interacquisition evaluations, respectively. This study presents new software for time efficient identification of complex craniofacial landmarks in 3D MRI. To the best of our knowledge, no evaluation of software for rapid landmark-based analysis of complex anatomies from 3D MR data has yet been presented. This software may also be useful for studies in other anatomical regions and for other types of image data. Clin. Anat. 22:456-462, 2009. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Noninvasive monitoring of brain temperature during mild hypothermia

The main purpose of this study was to verify the feasibility of brain temperature mapping with high-spatial- and reduced-spectral-resolution magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI). A secondary goal was to determine the temperature coefficient of water chemical shift in the brain with and without internal spectral reference. The accuracy of the proposed MRSI method was verified using a water and vegetable oil phantom. Selective decrease of the brain temperature of pigs was induced by intranasal cooling. Temperature reductions between 2 degrees C and 4 degrees C were achieved within 20 min. The relative changes in temperature during the cooling process were monitored using MRSI. The reference temperature was measured with MR-compatible fiber-optic probes. Single-voxel H-1 MRS was used for measurement of absolute brain temperature at baseline and at the end of cooling. The temperature coefficient of the water chemical shift of brain tissue measured by MRSI without internal reference was -0.0192 +/- 0.0019 ppm/degrees C. The temperature coefficients of the water chemical shift relative to N-acetylaspartate, choline-containing compounds and creatine were -0.0096 +/- 0.0009, -0.0083 +/- 0.0007 and -0.0091 +/- 0.0011 ppm/degrees C, respectively. The results of this study indicate that MRSI with high spatial and reduced spectral resolutions is a reliable tool for monitoring long-term temperature changes in the brain. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Brain temperature in volunteers subjected to intranasal cooling

Intranasal cooling can be used to initiate therapeutic hypothermia. However, direct measurement of brain temperature is difficult and the intra-cerebral distribution of temperature changes with cooling is unknown. The purpose of this study was to measure the brain temperature of human volunteers subjected to intranasal cooling using non-invasive magnetic resonance (MR) methods. Intranasal balloons catheters circulated with saline at 20A degrees C were applied for 60 min in ten awake volunteers. No sedation was used. Brain temperature changes were measured and mapped using MR spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) and phase-mapping techniques. Heart rate and blood pressure were monitored throughout the experiment. Rectal temperature was measured before and after the cooling. Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) test and nasal inspection were done before and after the cooling. Questionnaires about the subjects' personal experience were completed after the experiment. Brain temperature decrease measured by MRSI was -1.7 +/- A 0.8A degrees C and by phase-mapping -1.8 +/- A 0.9A degrees C (n = 9) at the end of cooling. Spatial distribution of temperature changes was relatively uniform. Rectal temperature decreased by -0.5 +/- A 0.3A degrees C (n = 5). The physiological parameters were stable and no shivering was reported. The volunteers remained alert during cooling and no cognitive dysfunctions were apparent in the MMSE test. Postcooling nasal examination detected increased nasal secretion in nine of the ten volunteers. Volunteers' acceptance of the method was good. Both MR techniques revealed brain temperature reductions after 60 min of intranasal cooling with balloons circulated with saline at 20A degrees C in awake, unsedated volunteers

Phase-difference and spectroscopic imaging for monitoring of human brain temperature during cooling

Decrease of the human brain temperature was induced by intranasal cooling. The main purpose of this study was to compare the two magnetic resonance methods for monitoring brain temperature changes during cooling: phase-difference and magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) with high spatial resolution. Ten healthy volunteers were measured. Selective brain cooling was performed through nasal cavities using saline-cooled balloon catheters. MRSI was based on a radiofrequency spoiled gradient echo sequence. The spectral information was encoded by incrementing the echo time of the subsequent eight image records. Reconstructed voxel size was 1x1x5 mm(3). Relative brain temperature was computed from the positions of water spectral lines. Phase maps were obtained from the first image record of the MRSI sequence. Mild hypothermia was achieved in 15-20 min. Mean brain temperature reduction varied in the interval degrees C and degrees C as measured by the MRSI and phase-difference methods, respectively. Very good correlation was found in all locations between the temperatures measured by both techniques except in the frontal lobe. Measurements in the transversal slices were more robust to the movement artifacts than those in the sagittal planes. Good agreement was found between the MRSI and phase-difference techniques. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved